Mixed Close For Wheat Market
International headlines held the wheat market firm as the other CBOT row crops dropped into the weekend. For KC wheat, the market went into the week’s end 2 1/2 to 6 1/2 cents lower. For July, that ended the week still as a net 64 3/4 cents higher than last Friday. Chicago wheat held onto 1 to 4 3/4 cent gains on a wide ranging day. July SRW printed a 39 3/4 cent range on the day. July SRW wheat was a net 52 3/4 cents higher for the week, after trading in a wide 93 1/4 cent range. Spring wheats were fractionally mixed on the day, as the upcoming rains may delay planting further.
The weekly CFTC report showed Chicago wheat spec traders were 10,906 contracts net long as of Tuesday’s settle. That was a 3,724 contract reduction wk/wk on long liquidation. Managed money was 5,458 contracts less net long in KC wheat to 39,949 contracts as of 5/3. That was their lightest net long as a group since February 15th. Spring wheat spec traders were buying futures and options through the week, leaving the group 298 contracts more net long to 18,566 contracts.
StatsCan reported March wheat stocks were 10.103 MMT. That was down from 16.491 MMT reported during last year, and within the 9.54 -10.996 MMT expected. Durum specific stocks were 1.467 MMT as of 3/31, also tighter than last year but above the trade average guess going in.
The average trade guess for new crop wheat output is 1.82 bbu ahead of the May WASDE. Old crop’s carryout is figured at 685 mbu, up from 678 shown in April. New crop stocks are expected to be between 495 and 854 mbu.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club reported 5.7m HA of spring grains had been planted through 5/2. That is up from 3.6m HA last week but compares to ~8m from the same point last year. UN’s FAO trimmed their outlook for 22/23 global wheat output by 2 MMT to 782 MMT – citing U.S. dryness in Southern HRW territory and the war in the Ukraine. The FAO also upped their 21/22 carryout by 5.2 MMT to 856 MMT for all grains. Indian wheat was the largest mover from the UN’s April forecast.
May 22 CBOT Wheat closed at $10.97, up 1 cent,
Cash SRW Wheat was $10.47 1/4, up 1 7/8 cents,
Jul SRW Wheat closed at $11.08 1/2, up 2 cents,
May 22 KCBT Wheat closed at $11.59 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat was $11.24 5/8, down 6 1/2 cents,
Jul HRW Wheat closed at $11.70 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,
May 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $12.04 1/2, up 1/4 cent,
Sep 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $12.06 1/4, up 1/4 cent,